Backing in the Place market on horses whose prices have increased in the Win market
Description
This strategy is so counter-intuitive that I struggle with finding a rationale behind it.
I stumbled upon it when I was testing the opposite idea – to back on horses whose prices have shortened over the given period. But I noticed that this idea would invariably lead to a loss, see a typical statement below.
If you look at the statement, you can see that the number of losses outweighed the number of wins, and given the low average odds of the bets, this was leading me to nowhere.
So I decided to do what comes to the mind of many newbies: to do exactly the opposite:
1. At 30 seconds before the start of a horse race, look for horses whose chances have decreased in the Win market over the last 5 minutes by the specified percentage. A chance is calculated as 100%/price, so for example, if the price was 4.0 and then became 5.0, the chance of this horse has decreased by 100/4.0 – 100/5.0 = 5%.
2. Otherwise look for a horse whose rank has increased since the moment you started refreshing the market. For example, if at the beginning the horse was the first favourite and later, at the time of betting, it became the second favourite, then this is the candidate for backing.
3. Back on the qualifying horse(s) in the Place market.
4. There is a loss recovery plan involved: after the loss, you increase your next 3 bets by 1.2 to compensate for the loss. Then the bet reverts to the initial size (a percentage of your bank). Note that the sequence does not restart after each loss: instead it is pursued for a fixed number of steps, regardless of how many losses will be in between.
Example:
Initial bet is 1 unit.
- Back 1 unit. Lost.
- Back 1.2 units. Lost.
- Back 1.2 units. Won.
- Back 1.2 units. Won.
- Back 1 unit. And so on...
Triggers
Download the trigger setup file.
Profile name: back-place-increased-price-in-win
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
| max_rank | Maximum rank of the horse (1 is the first favourite) |
| chance_drop | How much the chance for winning must drop in the Win market (in %). Chance = 100/price |
| mins_before_off | Time for the bet (minutes before the off) |
| interval | Time interval over which the price must go up (and chance do down) |
| bet_profit | Expected profit from the bet, % of bank |
| multiplier | Number by which you multiply the next bet after a loss |
| cycle_length | Number of steps in the loss recovery cycle (how many bets to multiply by multiplier) |
| max_price | Maximum price of the bet |
So what shall we make of this experiment?
Triggers In Action
Day 1, January 09, 2019
This is the first Trigger in Action sequence where I did not change any settings throughout the testing period!
Total P/L: 7.19
ROI: 1.34%
Wins: 16, losses: 16.
Download Statement for 09/01/2019
Day 2, January 10, 2019
My Windows updated and restarted overnight that day – I only discovered that in the morning after I checked my VPS. So that day the triggers did not back in the Australian markets.
Total P/L: 88.00
ROI: 18.22%
Wins: 19, losses: 11.
Download Statement for 10/01/2019
Day 3, January 11, 2019
Just kept testing really.
Total P/L: 54.06
ROI: 1.88%
Wins: 64, losses: 47.
Download Statement for 11/01/2019
Day 4, January 12, 2019
That’s when the fortune pendulum started swinging in the opposite direction, like it often does:
Total P/L: -17.83
ROI: 0.92%
Wins: 57, losses: 55.
Download Statement for 12/01/2019
Day 5, January 13, 2019
Another day of testing. I was travelling abroad, so did not have much opportunity to check on my triggers until late at night.
Total P/L: -54.25
ROI: -4.22%
Wins: 34, losses: 27.
Download Statement for 13/01/2019
Day 6, January 14, 2019
The pendulum I mentioned above was now changing its direction again. No changes, just kept going as it was.
Total P/L: 2.73
ROI: -0.24%
Wins: 29, losses: 21.
Download Statement for 14/01/2019
Day 7, January 15, 2019
Total P/L: 20.65
ROI: 1.43%
Wins: 35, losses: 24.
Download Statement for 15/01/2019
I had my return flight that night, so I decided to leave it in until tomorrow and have the last day of testing.
Day 8, January 16, 2019
Total P/L: 66.62
ROI: 4.42%
Wins: 46, losses: 34.
Download Statement for 16/01/2019
My bank balance and statistics:
I don’t really know what to say about this strategy: it seems silly at the first sight, but it is producing good results, although they are far from being consistent.
I think it is the combination of high odds and loss recovery that did the trick. At any rate, if you reverse this strategy, i.e. lay on horses that satisfy these criteria or back those whose price has shortened, you will be in a much worse position (I have tested both, so believe me).
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Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!
How and where I test the triggers?
I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
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