Laying on reserve Greyhounds
Description
This is another Trigger in Action report based on the forthcoming service BFStats. Prior to developing the triggers and testing them out, I've backtested the idea against the historical data (over 8K markets with a Res runner).
It is super simple:
Lay flat stakes on reserve runners just before the start of the race. I suggest 1% of your bank, but that can be easily adjustable in the constants.
A reserve runner is a dog that replaced a previously withdrawn runner. It has a (Res) label next to its name.
Using the constants, you can also enable a simple profit accumulator plan where each next bet is multiplied by the specified number for a predefined number of steps.
What makes it interesting is the selection criteria for the markets where to lay. The backtesting stage allowed me to filter out race distances which you should avoid and leave only the ones where layin on the Res dog produced the most profit.
You will find the eligible race distances in the trigger conditions inside the trigger file.
Triggers
Download the trigger setup file.
Profile name: lay-res-greyhound
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
| bet_size | Size of bet, % of current bank |
| mins_before_start | When to place the bet, minutes before the start |
| pattern1 | Market name search pattern 1 |
| pattern2 | Market name search pattern 2 |
| pattern3 | Market name search pattern 3 |
| pattern4 | Market name search pattern 4 |
| pattern5 | Market name search pattern 5 |
| pattern6 | Market name search pattern 6 |
| pattern7 | Market name search pattern 7 |
| pattern8 | Market name search pattern 8 |
| multiplier | Bet multiplier after profit |
| max_steps | Maximum steps in the profit accumulation cycle |
Triggers In Action
October 16 to November 23, 2020
During the whole period of testing, I've used the following settings, as I have previously figured them out from a BFStats report:
| bet_size | 1 |
| mins_before_start | 0.1 |
| pattern1 | 450m |
| pattern2 | 470m |
| pattern3 | 400m |
| pattern4 | 380m |
| pattern5 | 268m |
| pattern6 | 305m |
| pattern7 | 483m |
| pattern8 | 238m |
| multiplier | 1 |
| max_steps | 3 |
I have tested the triggers for 40 days in a row, of which they placed bets on 29 days -- another record period in the history of Triggers in Action! On some days the trigger did not place any bets though: there aren't many races with a Res runner in the first place, and then the additional restrictions of the race distance often leave zero markets eligible for a bet.
Luckily, the triggers are configured in such a way as to delete any markets where the bets could not be placed, to avoid refreshing them in vain.
Day 1, October 16, 2020
Total P/L: -38
ROI: -380%
Wins: 0, losses: 1
Download Statement for 16/10/2020
There was a period of no bets for the next two days as the trigger conditions were not satisfied.
Day 2, October 19, 2020
Total P/L: 9.43
ROI: 98.02%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 19/10/2020
Day 3, October 20, 2020
Total P/L: 9.52
ROI: 98.04%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 20/10/2020
Day 4, October 21, 2020
Total P/L: 39.02
ROI: 97.99%
Wins: 4, losses: 0
Download Statement for 21/10/2020
Day 5, October 22, 2020
Total P/L: 10
ROI: 98.04%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 22/10/2020
Day 6, October 24, 2020
Total P/L: 10.09
ROI: 97.96%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 24/10/2020
Day 7, October 28, 2020
Total P/L: 10.19
ROI: 97.98%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 28/10/2020
Day 8, October 30, 2020
Total P/L: 10.29
ROI: 98%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 30/10/2020
Day 9, October 31, 2020
Total P/L: 10.4
ROI: 98.02%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 31/10/2020
Day 10, November 01, 2020
Total P/L: -27.84
ROI: -259.94%
Wins: 0, losses: 1
Download Statement for 01/11/2020
Day 11, November 02, 2020
Total P/L: 20.54
ROI: 98%
Wins: 2, losses: 0
Download Statement for 02/11/2020
Day 12, November 03, 2020
Total P/L: 20.96
ROI: 98.04%
Wins: 2, losses: 0
Download Statement for 03/11/2020
Day 13, November 04, 2020
Total P/L: -58.27
ROI: -182.32%
Wins: 2, losses: 1
Download Statement for 04/11/2020
Day 14, November 06, 2020
Total P/L: 10.05
ROI: 97.95%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 06/11/2020
Day 15, November 07, 2020
Total P/L: 30.77
ROI: 97.99%
Wins: 3, losses: 0
Download Statement for 07/11/2020
Day 16, November 08, 2020
Total P/L: -51.22
ROI: -480.04%
Wins: 0, losses: 1
Download Statement for 08/11/2020
Day 17, November 10, 2020
Total P/L: 40.41
ROI: 97.99%
Wins: 4, losses: 0
Download Statement for 10/11/2020
Day 18, November 11, 2020
Total P/L: 31.36
ROI: 98%
Wins: 3, losses: 0
Download Statement for 11/11/2020
Day 19, November 12, 2020
Total P/L: 10.66
ROI: 97.98%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 12/11/2020
Day 20, November 13, 2020
Total P/L: 10.76
ROI: 98%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 13/11/2020
Day 21, November 15, 2020
Total P/L: -75.55
ROI: -172.33%
Wins: 3, losses: 1
Download Statement for 15/11/2020
Day 22, November 16, 2020
Total P/L: 10.13
ROI: 97.97%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 16/11/2020
Day 23, November 17, 2020
Total P/L: 30.99
ROI: 98.01%
Wins: 3, losses: 0
Download Statement for 17/11/2020
Day 24, November 18, 2020
Total P/L: 10.54
ROI: 98.05%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 18/11/2020
Day 25, November 19, 2020
Total P/L: 10.63
ROI: 97.97%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 19/11/2020
Day 26, November 20, 2020
Total P/L: 10.74
ROI: 97.99%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 20/11/2020
Day 27, November 21, 2020
Total P/L: 10.85
ROI: 98.01%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 21/11/2020
Day 28, November 22, 2020
Total P/L: -16.31
ROI: -146.02%
Wins: 0, losses: 1
Download Statement for 22/11/2020
Day 29, November 23, 2020
Total P/L: 10.79
ROI: 98%
Wins: 1, losses: 0
Download Statement for 23/11/2020
My bank balance and statistics:
| Starting Bank: | 1,000 |
| Final Bank: | 1,111.9 |
| Max. Drawdown: | -38 |
| Max. Profit: | 131.19 |
| Max. single-bet loss: |
-107.44
|
| Total P/L: |
111.90
|
| ROI: | 22.15% |
This is not an especially ambitious strategy, with hardly a couple of bets on any given day. I would say these triggers can be run alongside other strategies in a sort of "background" mode, for example, alongside football or tennis triggers.
With flat stakes you won't go far, but you won't go bust either. However, with a cautious loss recovery plan or a profit accumulator it can do wonders.
Take a look at what would the P/L graph would have looked like if multiplier had been equal to 1.5, i.e. if the profit accumulator was on:
The above chart is based on a mathematical model.
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Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!
How and where I test the triggers?
I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
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