Backing on Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 goals in the second half of a football match
Description
This strategy is based on the assumption that the chance of another goal towards the end of a football match is low enough to try and back the Under x.5 goals and take advantage of the price while it is still high.
Football statistics data show that teams are more likely to score in the second half. According to the statistics for top European leagues in 2019/2020, only about 6% of the games ended with a 0 - 0, and many bettors think the probability of scoring in the last minutes is very high, so the prices of Under selections are slightly higher than they should be, especially closer to the end of the match. You can back while the price is still high and thus cover the inevitable losses from occasional matches in which teams wake up towards the end of the game.
Here are the two simple steps you could take:
- If the teams have not scored any goals by the 69th minute of the match, back on Under 1.5 goals.
- If the teams scored only one goal by the 73rd minute of the match, back on Under 2.5 goals.
You can theoretically back in both markets of the same game, but I would say this is extremely rare.
The triggers include a simple profit accumulator plan, with the next X bets after the profit are multiplied by a set number, then the bet is reverted to its original size.
There are also a couple of additional restrictions in place: the betting stops for the day after a certain target profit is reached; the betting starts no sooner than after ~ 7 am (adjustable).
Triggers
Download the trigger setup file.
Profile name: back-under-2nd-half
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
| bet_size1 | 1.1 | Size of the bet on Under 1.5, % of bank |
| bet_size2 | 1.5 | Size of the bet on Under 2.5, % of bank |
| bet_minute1 | 69 | When to back on Under 1.5, minute of the match |
| bet_minute2 | 73 | When to back on Under 2.5, minute of the match |
| min_15_price | 1.08 | Min. price of Under 1.5 |
| min_25_price | 1.07 | Min. price of Under 2.5 |
| multiplier | 2 | Bet multiplier after profit |
| max_steps | 3 | Maximum steps in the profit accumulator |
| target_profit | 5 | Target profit for the day, % of bank |
| bet_start_time | 30 | At what time of day to start betting, % of day. Example: 25% - 6 am, 50% - 12 pm, 75% - 6 pm |
The triggers will slow down and speed up the market refresh at appropriate moments to save traffic to BetFair, and promptly delete all unqualifying markets, thus reducing your load on the exchange server.
Triggers In Action
Day 1, December 18, 2020
I started with the following values of the constants:
| bet_minute1 | 76 |
| bet_minute2 | 69 |
| bet_size1 | 1 |
| bet_size2 | 1.5 |
| min_25_price | 1.1 |
| min_15_price | 1.15 |
| multiplier | 2 |
| max_steps | 3 |
My first trigger prototype did not have any betting start time restrictions or target profit, these were introduced later.
Total P/L: 56.73
ROI: 7.36%
Wins: 34, losses: 5
Download Statement for 18/12/2020
Day 2, December 19, 2020
In the first days, especially if the triggers generate profit, I leave them running without any changes to identify potential vulnerabilities.
Total P/L: 57.5
ROI: 2.22%
Wins: 131, losses: 19
Download Statement for 19/12/2020
Day 3, December 20, 2020
Total P/L: -23.98
ROI: -1.13%
Wins: 105, losses: 17
Download Statement for 20/12/2020
Day 4, December 21, 2020
Total P/L: -10.64
ROI: -2.39%
Wins: 16, losses: 2
Download Statement for 21/12/2020
Day 5, December 22, 2020
After two losing days in a row, I analysed the statement data and run them through a couple of models. The results prompted me to adjust the settings in the following way:
| bet_minute1 | 69 |
| bet_minute2 | 73 |
| bet_size1 | 1.1 |
| bet_size2 | 1.5 |
| min_25_price | 1.07 |
| min_15_price | 1.08 |
Total P/L: 11.49
ROI: 0.95%
Wins: 52, losses: 7
Download Statement for 22/12/2020
Day 6, December 23, 2020
Total P/L: 18.5
ROI: 1.15%
Wins: 69, losses: 11
Download Statement for 23/12/2020
Day 7, December 24, 2020
Further analysis helped me to put together the final version of the triggers that I then ran until the end of the testing period.
The new triggers did not start betting until 30% of the day has passed, in other words, they skipped the early matches and started betting after 7 am (bet_start_time in the constants). Also, the triggers now stopped after a certain target profit (target_profit in constants) has been reached and restarted on the next day.
Total P/L: 27.08
ROI: 19.57%
Wins: 6, losses: 0
Download Statement for 24/12/2020
Day 8, December 25, 2020
Total P/L: 50.59
ROI: 11.43%
Wins: 12, losses: 0
Download Statement for 25/12/2020
Day 9, December 26, 2020
Total P/L: 70.4
ROI: 9.09%
Wins: 36, losses: 3
Download Statement for 26/12/2020
Day 10, December 27, 2020
Total P/L: 71.34
ROI: 5.26%
Wins: 58, losses: 5
Download Statement for 27/12/2020
Day 11, December 28, 2020
Total P/L: -59.2
ROI: -7.54%
Wins: 26, losses: 8
Download Statement for 28/12/2020
Day 12, December 29, 2020
Total P/L: -118.28
ROI: -10.17%
Wins: 44, losses: 10
Download Statement for 29/12/2020
Day 13, December 30, 2020
Total P/L: -8.05
ROI: -0.84%
Wins: 34, losses: 7
Download Statement for 30/12/2020
Day 14, December 31, 2020
Total P/L: 43.25
ROI: 14.9%
Wins: 11, losses: 0
Download Statement for 31/12/2020
Day 15, January 01, 2021
Total P/L: 29
ROI: 8.03%
Wins: 12, losses: 1
Download Statement for 01/01/2021
Day 16, January 02, 2021
Total P/L: -4.06
ROI: -0.3%
Wins: 64, losses: 5
Download Statement for 02/01/2021
Day 17, January 03, 2021
Total P/L: 22.67
ROI: 1.6%
Wins: 60, losses: 9
Download Statement for 03/01/2021
Day 18, January 04, 2021
Total P/L: 15.65
ROI: 1.67%
Wins: 33, losses: 6
Download Statement for 04/01/2021
Day 19, January 05, 2021
Total P/L: -56.73
ROI: -6.53%
Wins: 28, losses: 7
Download Statement for 05/01/2021
Day 20, January 06, 2021
Total P/L: 62.45
ROI: 7.58%
Wins: 33, losses: 2
Download Statement for 06/01/2021
Day 21, January 07, 2021
Total P/L: 28.88
ROI: 4.61%
Wins: 22, losses: 1
Download Statement for 07/01/2021
Day 22, January 08, 2021
Total P/L: 30.09
ROI: 3.33%
Wins: 33, losses: 3
Download Statement for 08/01/2021
Day 23, January 09, 2021
Total P/L: 3.21
ROI: 8.34%
Wins: 2, losses: 0
Download Statement for 09/01/2021
My bank balance and statistics:
| Starting Bank: | 1,000 |
| Final Bank: | 1,318.01 |
| Max. Drawdown: | -7.21 |
| Max. Profit: | 358.61 |
| Max. single-bet loss: |
-70.87
|
| Total P/L: |
318.01
|
| ROI: | 1.45% |
| Strike Rate: | 87.81% |
Like with most strategies, this one offers mixed results: some days are really bad and some are much better, although overall this strategy generated steady profit (the triggers never dropped the bank below its starting point in the middle of the testing). You can remove the profit cap and see how far it can take you in one day, but I get the feeling that it is much safer to let the money trickle in over the long term. You can also experiment with the profit accumulator plan and maybe turn it into a loss recovery plan instead.
As with other football strategies, avoid matches with low volume, as the prices will be worse there. Mind the number of requests to BetFair and keep the refresh rate low, ideally starting to refresh the markets after the second half (that is, at -45 minutes before the beginning).
By the way, here is some football scoring statistics for you based on the historical data we had in 2018:
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Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!
How and where I test the triggers?
I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
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