Dutching on “0 – 0”, “0 – 1” and “0 – 1” in Half Time Score, then backing on Over 2.5 if the first three bets lost
I have come across an illustrative trigger request, and I am going to lay it down in front of you step by step, so you get a chance to learn to design triggers.
Description
Back on “0 – 0”, “0 – 1” and “1 – 0” in Half Time Score, with an aim to trade out with a 10% profit before the first goal is scored. If all three bets are lost and we could not green them up, back on Over 2.5 in Under/Over 2.5 goals to compensate the loss.
If you are immediately puzzled as to how to approach this problem, don’t worry, let’s break it down into simple tasks.
Dutching on three selections, “0 – 0”, “0 – 1” and “1 – 0”.
It’s straightforward: you pick the trigger action Dutching Back and add two conditions:
- which market to back in
- what selections to back (by their indexes, i.e. #1 is “0 – 0”, #4 is “1 – 0”, etc:
In what cases will these bets win? Apparently, if the teams do not score more than 1 goal in the first half.
Greening up
For some peace of mind, you can trade out before one of the teams scores and thus exit this match.
To do the trade-out, create a trigger with an action “trade out” and a standard P/L ratio of 50%. In the trigger conditions, specify:
- the score must be nil
- the Dutching trigger ought to have been executed on the selections which we intend to trade out
- the cumulative profit from trading out all bets in the market must be greater than the profit percentage we have specified in the constant
green_prc
Let’s look closer at the last condition.
MF Pro has an internal market variable market_tradeout. It holds the amount you will win or lose if you trade out all your bets in this market right away – both back and lay bets. This variable is invaluable when you need to catch an opportunity to close all your open positions. After all, some bets may trade out to a loss, while others to profit, and with this variable you will always know how much you will get as a total.
Stop refreshing the second market after a profit
If greening up kicks in or Half Time Score settle with a profit, we no longer care about the second market. It makes sense to delete it or at least stop refreshing it to reduce the traffic you are pulling from BetFair (they don’t like you refreshing markets and not placing bets).
Backing on Over 2.5
If the first batch of bets ends up with a loss, we will have to back Over 2.5 in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market.
Note: if the teams score more than 2 goals in the first half, we won’t be able to place bets in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market, as it will be automatically settled and closed.
To that end, create a trigger that places a back bet on the following conditions:
- Market’s betting code is Under/Over 2.5 goals – that is clear in itself
- Selection’s Index is equal to 2 – this is the second selection in the list, as the first one is the Under 2.5 goals
- It is now the second half of the match (
match_periodis an internal market variable returning the number of a match half in football or match quarter in basketball) - The Dutching trigger must have been executed in this event. Note! We are talking specifically about the event as a trigger scope, not the market. If anything, the Dutching trigger must NOT be executed in the Under/Over market. Therefore, choose “Number of runs in the sports event” as the condition body.
- Half Time Score must end up with a loss. The profit or loss resulting from bets in a settled market can be determined with the variable
market_settled_pl. In order to get the settled P/L for a “sibling” market in the same event, use prefixfootball18_- number 18 stands for the market code Half Time Score (you will find the full list of available prefixes in the manual).
The trigger must back an exact amount to cover the loss. The loss, as we remember, will be equal to liab_size – that’s the liability size we have defined for Dutching bets in the constants. Therefore, you will need to bet liab_size/(back_price - 1), as the profit from a back bet is equal to the bet size multiplied by its (price - 1). Throw in the exchange commission, and you will get: liab_size/((back_price-1)*(1-commission)).
Here is an example of a match where the Dutching bets lost, yet the subsequent back bet on Over 2.5 won:
Triggers
Download the trigger installation file.
Profile name: dutching-half-time-score-back-over25
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
| liab_size | Dutching liability size |
| green_prc | Green-up profit percentage |
By the way, here is a list of historical football markets in which Dutching bets will lose and the triggers will have to place a back bet on Over 2.5:
Half Time Score + Under/Over 2.5 goals markets
You can load this list into Time Machine and play with the triggers offline.