Laying against 0 - 3 or 3 - 0 in Correct Score (football) in favour of the underdog
Description
If you have a large enough bank or if you don’t mind placing small bets (which BetFair will certainly frown upon if you abuse the system for a long time), then this strategy is for you.
It’s plain and simple: you lay against the score 0 – 3 or 3 – 0 in favour of the underdog at the beginning of a football match. For example, in a match Lille v Dijon, determine that Dijon is the underdog (and Lille is the favourite) and lay on 0 – 3 in Correct Score.
The prices will be formidably high (up to 1000), but so will be your chances to win that bet.
You will see the results of my testing below.
Triggers
Download the trigger setup file.
Profile name: lay-0-3-correct-score
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
|
liab_size |
Size of liability (% of the available funds) |
|
min_team_dif |
Minimum difference between the prices of the teams (Match Odds) |
|
min_vlm |
Minimum market volume (Match Odds) |
As you can see from the two last constants, you need to load both Match Odds and Correct Score markets to be able to run this strategy. The difference between the two teams must be big enough to decrease the chances of the underdog to score 3 goals against the favourite team.
Triggers In Action
Day 1, March 03, 2019
I started testing the triggers with the following settings:
|
bet_size |
1 |
|
min_team_dif |
0.5 |
|
min_vlm |
1000 |
That’s right, on my first day I used the size of bet rather than the size of liability.
My first loss happened that day, and I was going to find out how often these losses will take place the next several days to see if this strategy is viable at all.
Total P/L: -35.13
ROI: -264.14%
Wins: 35, losses: 1.
Download Statement for 03/03/2019
Day 2, March 04, 2019
I noticed that the method I chose for setting the size of my bet did not take into account the price at which the triggers were laying. This was potentially very dangerous, especially given the fact that some bets could be placed at a price of 1000.0 – this could leave me bankrupt in no time. So for the next day (and for the rest of my testing), I defined the liability of my bets as a percentage of the available funds.
|
liab_size |
5.0 |
Total P/L: 7.32
ROI: 95.06%
Wins: 23, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 04/03/2019
Day 3, March 05, 2019
I kept the same settings and triggers for the rest of this testing period, as there was little I wanted to change or add to this strategy. My primary goal was to evaluate the long-term viability of this plan.
Total P/L: 12.22
ROI: 95.02%
Wins: 28, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 05/03/2019
Day 4, March 06, 2019
Another day without losses.
Total P/L: 8.96
ROI: 95.02%
Wins: 20, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 06/03/2019
Day 5, March 07, 2019
Total P/L: 8.78
ROI: 95.12%
Wins: 20, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 07/03/2019
Day 6, March 08, 2019
Total P/L: -30.97
ROI: -108.58%
Wins: 49, losses: 1.
Download Statement for 08/03/2019
Day 7, March 09, 2019
Total P/L: 27.84
ROI: 94.98%
Wins: 80, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 09/03/2019
OK, strictly speaking, if I stopped at this point, after the usual 7 days of testing, I would have ended up with a total loss of -£0.97, i.e. I wouldn't have earned or lost any significant amount of money. This is to be expected as I did not apply any loss recovery. I did not turn the VPS off because I was in the middle of fixing the problem with the new SSL protocol introduced by BetFair, so I kind of did not have time for anything else. Therefore, you may choose to ignore the results of the next two days.
Day 8, March 10, 2019
Total P/L: 28.70
ROI: 95.00%
Wins: 76, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 10/03/2019
Day 9, March 11, 2019
Total P/L: 8.12
ROI: 95.42%
Wins: 22, losses: 0.
Download Statement for 11/03/2019
My bank balance and statistics:
Total strike rate: 99.44%
As you can see, even such microscopic bets can bring a long-term profit, if you are not afraid of high liabilities. Mind you, I did not even pursue any loss recovery, although I did have three losses over the period of 9 days. My bank has never fallen below 95% of its starting amount.
You have enough space for manoeuvre (use the constants) to insure yourself against losing all your bank in one go, so why not give it a try? Your balance graph will most probably have a sawtooth pattern, but each next sawtooth may peak higher and higher.
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Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!
How and where I test the triggers?
I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.