Maria Lay Staking Plan
Description
This system has been discussed a lot because a lady called Maria apparently turned £3,000 into £100,000 in less than a year using this staking plan. In 2005, she started a thread on a betting forum reporting her daily progress. Unfortunately, she did not reveal the method she used to choose the horses she laid on. She said that her father had 'connections' around horse racing circles and could get inside information.
Her strike rate over the period was 85% with average lay odds of 6-1. If her strike rate had fallen below 75% she would have made a heavy loss.
The idea behind the actual staking plan is very simple: you lay different amounts depending on the size of your bank and on the price of the selection. Your stakes are adjusted if you make profit or get exposed to losses. The flexibility of this plan makes it so accessible.
Rule 1 - Lay different amounts based on the current price.
Let's assume a bank of 1000 points:
Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - you lay 10 pts, your liability under 25 pts
Prices from 3.5 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - you lay 6 pts, your liability 15 to 38.4 pts
Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - you lay 4 pts, your liability 26 to 40 pts
No bets if the price is greater than 11.
Rule 2 - If you are making profit, the stakes are increased on a daily basis in proportion to the betting bank.
For instance, if after day 1 the betting bank is at £1,100 then 1% would now be £11 rather than £10.
Rule 3 - If after a day of betting the cumulative betting bank has decreased, the stakes are left alone unless 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost.
If this occurs then the stakes are re-calculated based on the new "65%-sized bank" For example if your using £1,000 as your starting betting bank, you would keep the same stakes used until your betting bank went below £650 when those stakes would become £6.50, £3.9 and £2.6 until the bank gets back up to £1,000 again (or - even down to £422.0 - a further 35% loss).
Triggers
Download the trigger setup file.
Profile name: maria-lay
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
| range1 | First price range |
| range2 | Second price range |
| range3 | Third price range |
| bank_perc | Percentage of the bank to set as the initial stake |
| stake1 | Stake in first price range, % of bank_perc |
| stake2 | Stake in second price range, % of bank_perc |
| stake3 | Stake in third price range, % of bank_perc |
| loss_perc | Percentage lost of the highest bank upon which the bet is recalculated |
| fav_rank | Rank of the selection to lay against |
| secs_before_off | When to lay (seconds before off) |
| target_profit | Target profit, in % of the starting bank |
I was tempted to test this strategy first-hand, so below are my results.
Triggers In Action
Day 1, December 21, 2018
I tried this plan on Greyhound races, since there are much more of them in any given day.
My settings were as follows (I did not have some of the constants at first):
| range1 | 3.5 |
| range2 | 7.4 |
| range3 | 11 |
| bank_perc | 1 |
| loss_perc | 35 |
I was laying on the first favourite (the dog with the lowest price).
And at the end of the day I was unhappy with the results:
Total P/L: -195.2
ROI: -57.08%
Wins: 38, losses: 16.
Download Statement for 21/12/2018
Day 2, December 22, 2018
I thought, OK, maybe I was laying the wrong dog, the strike rate was too low (70%). Maybe I should try the second favourite?
| fav_rank | 2 |
Total P/L: -134.87
ROI: -13.09%
Wins: 157, losses: 54.
Alas, the strike rate was only slightly better this time (74%).
Download Statement for 22/12/2018
Day 3, December 23, 2018
I thought, maybe I was betting too soon, way before the market has balanced itself? Maybe I’ll get a better (in my case, a lower price) if I introduce a constant for setting the time to bet (seconds before the start)?
Trying to improve my strike rate, I decided to lay on the third favourite. I also reduced the base stake from 1% to 0.5% of the bank.
I also tried to outsmart Ms. Maria and chose different price ranges for my bets.
My settings (the ones different from the previous days):
| range1 | 5.9 |
| range2 | 8 |
| range3 | 11 |
| bank_perc | 0.5 |
| fav_rank | 3 |
| secs_before_off | 10 |
It helped, but still did not bring me in the green zone:
Total P/L: -1.98
ROI: -0.53%
Wins: 119, losses: 24.
Download Statement for 23/12/2018
Day 4, December 24, 2018
While everyone else was stuffing turkey and wrapping up gifts, I was further experimenting with the price ranges. Unimpressed with my results, I analysed my account statement for the previous days and tried to model different outcomes for bets placed at different prices.
I also thought it would be safer to stop betting as soon as I have reached a target profit for the day. I noticed that on several occasions my bank had indeed increased to a certain amount, which I eventually lost again because I did not stop.
| range1 | 4.9 |
| range2 | 9 |
| range3 | 11 |
| target_profit | 10 |
Unfortunately, I never had a chance to reach that target:
Total P/L: -78.84
ROI: -24.90%
Wins: 91, losses: 24.
Download Statement for 25/12/2018
Day 5, December 26, 2018
I tried to change the staking plan radically by adjusting the sizes of the stakes (so I drifted away from Maria’s original plan).
My settings:
| stake1 | 1 |
| stake2 | 1.5 |
| stake3 | 0.4 |
Total P/L: 74.6
ROI: 25.66%
Wins: 70, losses: 10.
Download Statement for 26/12/2018
Day 6, December 27, 2018
I thought I’d finally nailed it, so left all my settings unchanged for the next day, with bad luck laughing in my face that very evening:
Total P/L: -79.55
ROI: -10.56%
Wins: 170, losses: 38.
Day 7, December 28, 2018
This had to be the last day of my testing, and I left all my settings as is, too late to change anything.
Total P/L: -24.66
ROI: -3.13%
Wins: 180, losses: 35.
Download Statement for 28/12/2018
Day 8, December 29, 2018
I knew already that this strategy had not worked out for me, but to maintain the experimental integrity, I reverted to the original, Maria’s price ranges and ran the triggers through that day’s horse races. After all, this was a staking plan for horse racing, not Greyhounds, right?
Total P/L: 18.13
ROI: 4.04%
Wins: 117, losses: 62.
Download Statement for 29/12/2018
My bank balance and statistics:
My verdict: this staking plan only works if you do have a strike rate of at least 85% (you win 85% of time). In all other cases, you will end up with either small or significant loss. But then, if you, like Maria, get access to insider information, maybe you won’t need any staking plans after all?
Using Time Machine, I modeled two days of betting with a strike rate > 80%. Here is what you will get with the Maria Lay Staking Plan if you find a good tipster:
Strike Rate: 81% |
Strike Rate: 85% |
With lower strike rates, you probably need a more solid loss recovery strategy.
Let me know if this plan has ever worked for you!
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How and where I test the triggers?
I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
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