Backing the Away team in a football Match Odds market based on the Draw's volume

Description

This is our new statistics-based trigger testing report, this time for Match Odds football markets.

Pick football Match Odds markets with at least £3,000 in matched volume at the start of the event.

At the 5th minute of a football match, place a back bet on the Away* team if its price is between 1.1 and 3.05 and matched volume percentage** is at least 14%, whereas the Draw's volume percentage is below 10%. 

For the purposes of validating purely the assumptions in this strategy, we are using flat stakes, therefore, there will be no loss recovery, although you can turn in on in the trigger constants.

*The Away team will always come as the second selection in the Match Odds market.

**The matched volume percentage is the share of the total amount of matched bets placed in the market. 

Almost everything about this strategy is flexible, meaning you can adjust the type of bet, size, price range, type of selection to bet on, etc. in the trigger constants. That is the beauty of triggered betting!

Just by looking at the conditions of this strategy, you will realise that it will not be generating many bets, as there aren't many markets that satisfy the criteria. However, we are not after the quantity but the quality of those bets. After all, you can always soften the restrictions in the constants to increase the number of qualifying markets.

This strategy, as well as several others, is a product of our betting strategy validation platform BFStats. By leveraging the price and volume data from hundreds of thousands of historical markets, BFStats can make an accurate prediction on how each strategy can perform in a range of selected markets. We have prepared an interactive report for this strategy where you can play with several of its parameters and see how the P/L prediction will change.

Triggers

Download the trigger setup file.

Profile name: back-away-team

How to run this trigger package:

1. Download and run the above installation file.

2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).

3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:

Here are the constants you can adjust:

min_vlm Minimum matched volume in the market
min_odds Minimum price of the opening bet
max_odds Maximum price of the opening bet
start_min When to start betting (minute of the match)
end_min When to stop betting (minute of the match)
init_bet Size of initial bet (see relative_bets and stake_type)
relative_bets 1 - init_bet is in % of available funds; 0 - init_bet is in currency units
stake_type 1 - init_bet = bet size; 2 - init_bet = bet liability (for laying) or profit (for backing)
max_steps Number of steps in the loss recovery cycle (0 if no recovery)
max_bets Maximum number of markets with simultaneous bets
sel_idx 1 - bet on Home; 2 - bet on Away
goal_num Maximum number of goals scored by the time of betting
min_team_vlm Minimum volume percentage of the team to bet on
max_draw_vlm Maximum volume percentage of the Draw

If you want to lay instead of backing, disable the trigger called "backing" and enable the one called "laying" in the Triggers Editor.

Testing Results

I have started testing with the following values of the above constants (trigger settings):

min_vlm 4000
min_odds 1.1
max_odds 3.05
start_min 5
end_min 5.5
init_bet 1
relative_bets 1
stake_type 1
max_steps 0
max_bets 10
sel_idx 2
goal_num 1
min_team_vlm 16
max_draw_vlm 10

Day 1, October 14, 2022

Total P/L: -29.7
ROI: -100%
Wins: 0, losses: 3

Download Statement for 14/10/2022

Day 2, October 15, 2022

Total P/L: 71.87
ROI: 94.47%
Wins: 7, losses: 1

Download Statement for 15/10/2022

Day 3, October 17, 2022

Unfortunately, I have missed the entire October 16 because Windows decided to update itself and restart early on that day, and I didn't check in on MarketFeeder Pro until late evening.

Total P/L: 24.49
ROI: 39.47%
Wins: 5, losses: 1

Download Statement for 17/10/2022

Day 4, October 18, 2022

Total P/L: -30.75
ROI: -15.77%
Wins: 9, losses: 10

Download Statement for 18/10/2022

Day 5, October 19, 2022

Total P/L: 4.52
ROI: 4.88%
Wins: 6, losses: 3

Download Statement for 19/10/2022

Day 6, October 20, 2022

Total P/L: 3.77
ROI: 36.25%
Wins: 1, losses: 0

Download Statement for 20/10/2022

Day 7, October 21, 2022

Total P/L: -10.44
ROI: -100%
Wins: 0, losses: 1

Download Statement for 21/10/2022

Day 8, October 22, 2022

Total P/L: 17.44
ROI: 12.45%
Wins: 9, losses: 5

Download Statement for 22/10/2022

Day 9, October 23, 2022

Total P/L: -8.27
ROI: -6.73%
Wins: 7, losses: 5

Download Statement for 23/10/2022

Day 10, October 24, 2022

Total P/L: 5.5
ROI: 7.56%
Wins: 4, losses: 3

Download Statement for 24/10/2022

Day 11, October 25, 2022

Total P/L: 32.94
ROI: 39.77%
Wins: 6, losses: 2

Download Statement for 25/10/2022

Day 12, October 26, 2022

Today I tried to increase the market coverage a little bit by softening the restrictions on the minimum market matched volume and the minimum volume % of the Away team:

min_vlm 3000
min_team_vlm 14

Total P/L: 44.42
ROI: 103.09%
Wins: 4, losses: 0

Download Statement for 26/10/2022

Day 13, October 27, 2022

Total P/L: -22.4
ROI: -100%
Wins: 0, losses: 2

Download Statement for 27/10/2022

Day 14, October 28, 2022

Total P/L: -4.71
ROI: -10.73%
Wins: 2, losses: 2

Download Statement for 28/10/2022

Day 15, October 29, 2022

Total P/L: 1.52
ROI: 0.95%
Wins: 9, losses: 6

Download Statement for 29/10/2022

My bank balance and statistics:

Backing the Away team in a football Match Odds market based on the Draw's volume

Starting Bank: 1000
Final Bank: 1100.15
Max. Drawdown: -31.22
Max. Profit: 126.12
Max. single-bet loss:
-11.26
Total P/L:
100.15
ROI: 8.60%
Strike Rate: 61.40%

As I was guessing at the beginning, this strategy did not generate many bets: on some days there was just one, because other markets did not qualify and were deleted. However, we are after quality, not quantity.

The testing period can be split into two parts with two different settings profiles. I was reluctant to change too much, as the modelling software we made for BFStats showed negative P/L for many alternative combinations of settings, such as a wider price range or a less strict volume % limitation. For that reason, I only tweaked a few of them.

What I liked about this strategy is that, though far from producing spectacular profits, it managed to steadily go uphill, with the P/L graph not demonstrating any major relapses. I believe this strategy is a reliable working horse that will show great performance in the long run.

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Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!

How and where I test the triggers?

I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.

I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.

I use Test Mode only.

You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.

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