Collective Greenup

Description

  1.  Towards the start of a race, pick the third, fourth and fifth favourites and remember their odds.
  2. When their cumulative odds drop by a given percentage, Dutch-Lay them to a fixed liability. By the drop of cumulative odds I mean the change in their lay book%. E.g., if first they were priced 10.5, 12.5 and 16, then their book% was 100/5 + 100/7.8 + 100/16 = 23.77%. Now if all of them go down, or if at least some of those odds drop down enough to cover the raise of the other, then they will qualify for the Dutch. E.g. if the above prices changed to 9.0, 11.5, 14.5, the book% will be 26.70%, which means their cumulative odds decreased despite the growth of the third price.
  3. Wait till there is an opportunity for a collective green-up. Such opportunity will occur when the sum of their potential tradeout P/L is positive. See the illustration below:

    The sum of potential tradeout P/L is positive

The triggers will react immediately:

Collective green-up

The main idea I'm playing with is the chance to compensate one selection's losses by the other selection's profits in a highly liquid market. Why does it have to be liquid? We need enough volatility for the prices of the three selections we bet against to change independently of each other. Normally the exchange will do its job and eliminate the possibility of imblanaced prices, but once in a while such possibility does appear, and more often in a volatile market.

Triggers

Download the trigger file.

Inside the file you'll find a bunch of constants to play with:

The minimum number of selections the triggers allow is 3 (you get to choose which), the maximum is 6. Therefore you can pick, say, 2nd to 4th favourites or 5th to 10th, but not 1st to 2nd or 3rd to 13th.

I personally would stay away from short races (like 5,6 or 7f) as there isn't enough time for the prices to create a green-up opportunity after the market turns In-Play.

Also note that the more selections you want to apply the Dutching to, the less are the chances that the Dutching will ever happen. Ultimately, if you include all your selections in the Dutching, you will hardly get to bet because the probability of the book% to increase to a significant degree will be close to zero (I'm talking about high liquidity markets). Of course you can decrease the value of the drop_prc to allow for more runners to be included into a Dutching.

Triggers in Action

Here is a self-explanatory video demonstration of how collective green-up works. Grab your free trial to test this strategy today!

If you have not heard of BetFair yet or do not have an account, register today and get £20 free. Use the link below:
Gamble responsibly! Always be aware that betting is NOT risk-free. You must be 18+ years old before you try gambling, but even as an adult, withhold from spending money in an ill-judged manner. Our company does not encourage you to prefer gambling over other meaningful activities. If gambling is affecting your life or the lives of people close to you, please contact GamCare
 
© 2005-2018 WellDone Creative Software. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions.
BetFair® and the BetFair Logo are registered trade marks of The Sporting Exchange Limited. Gamble responsibly.