Football cross-market Green-Up: back in one market and lay in the other

Description

With a typical green-up or cash-out, you back and lay the same selection to get guaranteed profit regardless of whether that selection wins or loses.

Never heard of green-up? Read some essential information here:
10 Facts About Green-up in MarketFeeder Pro

Sometimes you might want to back and lay on selections from different markets of the same sports event that represent identical or logically close outcomes. We are only focusing on football markets in this trigger example, so here are football outcomes that fit the description:

We decided to give you this set of easily customisable triggers so that you can back and lay on any pair of selections you choose from two different football markets of the same event.

The important feature of these triggers is that they factor in market commission. Unlike same-market green-up, with cross-market green-up you must account for the commission that will be deducted from your profits, thus the formulas for calculating bet prices and amounts will be slightly different. I'll explain the nuances in the How it works section, and if you want to have a handy calculator for doing it all manually, here you go:

Download an Excel Cross-Market Green-up Calculator

Disclaimer: this is NOT a betting strategy, but rather a technique you can use as part of your strategy, such as Dutching or saver bet.

Triggers

Download the trigger file here

You can adjust the trigger settings using the following constants inside the file:

bet_liab Liability of the first bet
mins_before_off When to place bets, minutes before the off
back_sidx Index of the selection to back on
lay_sidx Index of the selection to lay on
back_mkt Football prefix for the back bet. 1 - Match Odds, 2 - Correct Score; 6 - Over/Under 0.5 goals, etc. See Prefixes for Cross-Market Betting
lay_mkt Football prefix for the lay bet. 1 - Match Odds, 2 - Correct Score; 6 - Over/Under 0.5 goals, etc. See Prefixes for Cross-Market Betting
min_price_back Minimum price of the back bet
min_price_lay Minimum price of the lay bet
max_price_back Maximum price of the back bet
max_price_lay Maximum price of the lay bet
green_prc Minimum green-up profit percentage
back_then_lay 1 - first back, then lay; 0 - first lay, then back
max_gap Maximum gap between the back and lay prices, ticks
min_vlm Minimum matched volume in either of the markets

Prefixes for Cross-Market Betting

1 Match Odds 19 Half Time / Full Time
2 Correct Score 20 Both Teams to Score
3 Total Goals 21 Next Goal
4 Asian Handicap 22 Draw no Bet
5 Half Time 23 First Goal Odds
6 to 14 Over/Under 0.5 goals to 8.5 goals 24 Odd or Even
15 to 17 First Half Goals 0.5 to 2.5 25 Double Chance
18 Half Time Score 26 Goal Lines

This list is also available in the MarketFeeder Pro manual, chapter Triggered Betting -> Reference -> Variables -> Market Variables -> Prefixes for Cross-Market Betting.

How it works

If you are betting on selections that are related to each other but do not represent the same outcome, such as Draw/Draw from Half Time / Full Time vs The Draw from Match Odds, both bets will most probably be placed at the same time, unless you set a high green_prc:

Laying on The Draw

Laying on The Draw

Backing on Draw/Draw

Backing on Draw/Draw

Profit if The Draw wins in both halves: - £50 + £54.52 = £4.52

Profit if Draw loses in both halves: £17.27 - £12.75 = £4.52

Beware that they do not guarantee you profit as with a normal cash-out: they simply create equal P/L if one of the selection wins and the other one loses. 

To work out how much you should bet, you need to take into account the commission in each market. In a typical green-up with two bets, the commission only applies to the end profit remaining after both bets have been settled. In that case, the formula for the bet size is super simple:

back_bet = lay_bet*lay_price/back_price

lay_bet = back_bet*back_price/lay_price

You first place either a back or lay bet, and then work out the size of the other bet using the above formulas.

When commission kicks in, you need to correct them in the following way:

back_bet = lay_bet*lay_corrected_price/back_corrected_price

lay_bet = back_bet*back_corrected_price/lay_corrected_price

Where

back_corrected_price = (back_price - 1)*(1 - back_commission/100) + 1

lay_corrected_price = lay_price - lay_commission/100

In the screenshots above, this is how the triggers worked out the amounts of bets:

The lay bet on the Draw was placed first, so its amount was simply a liability of £50:

lay_bet = 50/(3.75 - 1) = £18.18

The back bet on Draw/Draw was placed next, so its amount was calculated off of the lay bet:

back_bet = 18.18*(3.75 - 5/100)/((5.5 - 1)*(1 - 5/100) + 1) = £12.75

If you are betting on identical selections, such as 0 - 0 and Under 0.5 goals, it is unlikely that both bets will be placed at once: BetFair's cross-matching algorithm will see to that. Instead, the triggers will wait till the prices close in enough to generate the desired profit percentage, and only then place the second bet.

In that case, make sure to set the order of the bets correctly. The price of 0 - 0 will keep falling if neither of the teams score, so it makes sense to first back then lay.

We hope that after reading this article what seemed like magic to you will now neatly fall into places as pure arithmetic!

Test the triggers in different football matches using Time Machine: you can download lots of markets free of charge.

Take a look at how the triggers operate in two different pairs of markets:

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