Backing on Over 0.5 Goals at increasing prices

Description

This strategy is as simple as it says so on the label: you just back on the teams in a football match to score at least one goal. However, there is a staking plan within this strategy:

1. You bet a fixed percentage of your current bank.

2. Start by backing the highest amount on Over 0.5 at the beginning of the game, while the price is still low.

3. As the game continues, place another back bet on Over 0.5, with a lesser amount and at a higher price.

4. Close to the end of the first half, place the third bet at the highest price.

5. If the score is still 0 – 0 towards the end of the game, distribute the loss evenly.

6. If you suffered loss in a game, increase your next 3 bets by 20%, then revert to the initial bet size. E.g. with a bank of $1,000 and a bet size of 2%, you back 20. If you lost -$15.00, and your bank is now $985, the next 3 bets will be $985*0.02 + 20% = $23.64.

This strategy heavily relies on the low chances of a game ending with a nil score. But it would be pointless if you were betting before or shortly after the start of the match, because the price of Over 0.5 Goals normally reflects the high chances of at least one goal in a match. That’s why you need the second and third bets.

Triggers

Download the trigger setup file.

Profile name: three-back-bets-over-05

How to run this trigger package:

1. Download and run the above installation file.

2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).

3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:

Here are the constants you can adjust:

bet_size Size of the first bet, % of the bank
bet2_size Size of the second bet, % of the first bet
bet3_size Size of the third bet, % of the first + second bet
bet1_minute When to place the first bet (minute of the match)
bet2_minute When to place the second bet (minute of the match)
bet3_minute When to place the third bet (minute of the match)
close_minute When to distribute the loss (minute of the match)
max_05_price Maximum price for the first bet
min_vlm Minimum market volume
cycle_length Number of steps in the loss recovery cycle
max_loss Maximum loss, % of the bank, after which the loss cycle is restarted
multiplier Number by which to multiply the bets following the loss

Let’s track my progress together.

Triggers In Action

Day 1, January 03, 2019

I started with the following settings:

bet_size 2
bet2_size 20
bet3_size 7
bet1_minute 5
bet2_minute 20
bet3_minute 40
close_minute 80
max_05_price 1.14
min_vlm 500

I did not have any loss recovery at first, as I was merely testing the waters to see how many wins I can get and at what odds.

Total P/L: 11.19
ROI: 1.17%
Wins: 42, losses: 3.

Download Statement for 03/01/2019

Day 2, January 04, 2019

This was an OK result, so I proceeded into the second day without changing anything.

Total P/L: -17.85
ROI: -2.19%
Wins: 27, losses: 4.

Download Statement for 04/01/2019

Day 3, January 05, 2019

Since my second day ended up with a loss, I wanted to try and insure the losses in Over 0.5 goals against another market of the same match.

So I came up with this idea: alongside with backing on Over 0.5 goals, I will also back on Under 1.5 goals and green up after the 20th minute if the score is still 0-0. This way I will generate some profit even if nobody scores a goal.

I also adjusted the maximum price of the bet after I considered the prices of my losing bets.

My settings were as follows:

bet_15_size 2 The size of the back bet on Under 1.5 goals, % of the bank
bet_15_minute 20 When to place the bet on Under 1.5 goals, minute of the match
greenup_15_minute 7 When to green up the bet on Under 1.5 goals, minute of the match
min_15_price 5 Minimum price of Under 1.5 goals
max_05_price 1.12  

I introduced additional triggers, which you can download from this link:

Download the triggers with backing on Under 1.5.

Total P/L: 7.81
ROI: 0.22%
Wins: 99, losses: 22.

Download Statement for 05/01/2019

Day 4, January 06, 2019

I thought that the whole insurance scheme was not worth the effort and traffic spent on refreshing an extra market per each football match. Instead, I decided to introduce a loss recovery plan, because my strike rate vs average odds were looking good. Read more about the correlation between the strike rate and loss recovery efficiency here.

I chose the typical multiple-step loss recovery, where the accumulated loss is divided by a certain number of steps (cycle_length) until it is fully recovered or until the loss has reached its predefined maximum value (a percentage of the bank, max_loss).

I also lowered the minimum market volume limit, as I was eager to try this plan in as many markets as possible, and my bets were not very big anyway.

My settings:

cycle_length 6
max_loss 30
min_vlm 400

Total P/L: 1.32
ROI: 0.11%
Wins: 39, losses: 5.

Download Statement for 06/01/2019

Day 5, January 07, 2019

Leaving all settings without change, I tested the triggers for another day.

Total P/L: -4.46
ROI: -0.19%
Wins: 35, losses: 3.

Download Statement for 07/01/2019

Day 6, January 08, 2019

I was obviously making no headway, although not suffering any noticeable loss either. I needed a breakthrough!

Having done some mathematical modelling based on my account statements, I decided to try a different loss recovery plan. This time I will increase a fixed number of bets (cycle_length) in the markets that immediately follow the lost bet, and I will do so by multiplying them by a fixed number (multiplier). As soon as cycle_length is over, I will get back to the initial bet size.

I added the new constant (leaving all others unchanged):

multiplier 1.2

This means, after a loss, I bet 20% more in the next three markets, and then got back to square 1.

Total P/L: 51.21
ROI: 8.14%
Wins: 28, losses: 0.

Download Statement for 08/01/2019

Too bad I did not have a chance to test my new loss recovery plan – there was simply no loss that day! Yay!

Day 7, January 09, 2019

Pleased as I was with a finally promising result, I needed to stick to the plan to find out whether it was performing correctly with real loss.

Having studied my previous account statements, I also noticed I was missing on an opportunity to increase my profits without significantly increasing my risks by betting more on the third go, after the 40th minute of the match! So I changed the size of the third bet.

bet3_size 10

Total P/L: 43.42
ROI: 4.98%
Wins: 34, losses: 1.

Download Statement for 09/01/2019

My bank balance and statistics:

Backing on Over 0.5 goals

Overall, I definitely see potential in this strategy! It appeals to me because it is very low-risk, but it can bring in a steady stream of profit – a workhorse among betting strategies.

I’d like to find the time to experiment with the sizes of the three bets, or rather with how they are correlated with each other – perhaps I should have been backing less the first time and more – the second and third time as the match progressed and the prices were crawling up?

At any rate, I felt sorry that the week was over and I had to switch to the next strategy!

User Review

Our long-time user and a valuable member of community, BobH, offers some thoughts on this strategy below:

I ran it weekend before last, and I tested 5 scenarios.
1. The original triggers as is (Original plan)
2. Plan 1: Amended bets to 1.25% of bank, then 60%, then 37.5%. No minimum price first bet, spreading losses at 80 mins.
3. Plan 2: 1.25%, 60%, 37.5%, minimum price first bet $1.05, spread losses at 80 mins.
4. Plan 3: 1.25%, 60%, 37.5%, no minimum price first bet, no spread of losses at 80 mins.
5. Plan 4: 1.25%, 60%, 37.5%, minimum price first bet $1.05, no spread of losses at 80 mins.

The reason I amended the bet sizes was that having the highest bet at the lowest price was never going to work, and the amendment increased average return.

Results are produced below.
Starting bank: $1,000:
Testing Period 5th to 8th April 2019

Plan Games Wins Strike Rate % Commission paid Profit/Loss ROI
Original 454 401 88.3% -$25.79 -$101.82 -$1.1%
Plan 1 459 406 88.5% -$28.29 -$63.90 -$0.7%
Plan 2 400 352 88.0% -$31.10 +$10.34 +$0.1%
Plan 3 452 413 91.4% -$28.67 -$95.63 -$1.2%
Plan 4 404 366 90.6% -$30.76 -$95.58 -$1.4%

You can amend the triggers to follow any of the suggested plans and check whether they make sense to you! We thank Bob for taking the time to do these great tests!

If you liked this trigger review, sign up for our newsletter to be the first to learn about new reviews!

Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!

How and where I test the triggers?

I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.

I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.

I use Test Mode only.

You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.

If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.

If you have not heard of BetFair yet or do not have an account, register today and get £20 free. Use the link below:
Gamble responsibly! Always be aware that betting is NOT risk-free. You must be 18+ years old before you try gambling, but even as an adult, withhold from spending money in an ill-judged manner. Our company does not encourage you to prefer gambling over other meaningful activities. If gambling is affecting your life or the lives of people close to you, please contact GamCare
 
© 2005-2019 WellDone Creative Software. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions.
BetFair® and the BetFair Logo are registered trade marks of The Sporting Exchange Limited. Gamble responsibly.